Vance is out claiming victory and dictating terms, but the Iran war is nowhere near over, and the optics of where Trump signed should worry the White House for years.
This framing from Patrick Henningsen reshaped how I see Iran's position.
By forcing Lebanon into the package and making it stick, Iran did what a superpower does, drawing a red line and backing it with real hard power.
They stood toe to toe with the world's strongest military and the region's best, got pounded, and came out dictating terms.
That, Patrick says, vaults Iran to the top tier of the region, above Israel and Saudi
But his warning is to stay cautious.
Israel doesn't think week to week, it thinks in decades.
They've occupied South Lebanon twice before and came back a third time.
He pointed to history rhyming: the 1982 invasion was triggered by an assassination later pinned on the wrong group, and a similar false-flag spark could blow this open again
The piece that stuck with me hardest?
Patrick was in Tehran the week before the bombs fell.
He says the "50,000 massacred protesters" story that justified this war came from US intelligence, and the real picture on the ground was very different.
@21WIRE
