Pravin Sawhney, one of India's most respected defense analysts, joined me to make sense of what actually happened overnight:
Trump's "locked and loaded" post came hours after Qatar brokered a compromise on Hormuz, with vessels entering via Iranian territorial waters and exiting via Omani waters.
An arrangement that gives Iran effective control of inbound traffic without completely shutting the strait.
Iran denied the reports, as Sawhney expected:
"The Iranians always deny good news until it is signed, they don't want to calm the markets, they want to keep the pressure on Trump."
But beyond any deal, the U.S. simply does not have the military wherewithal, destroyers needed for Israel's integrated air defense are already stretched thin, and missiles and interceptors are sorely depleted.
So what does Iran actually want from all this?
Not just Hormuz fees, but American forces OUT of the Middle East entirely, which is what Article 4 of the MOU already stipulates, within 30 days of a final deal.
"Trump should stop issuing public threats and get into serious closed-door negotiations, that is the only way a solution gets found."
A deal is closer than yesterday, but still further than anyone would like...
Thanks for coming on again, @PravinSawhney
