That sequencing is what Larry Johnson seized on.
Yesterday's package answered attacks on shipping.
Today a string of coastal sites from Bushehr to Chabahar got hit with no trigger in the water, and CNN quotes officials saying the ceasefire has "at least temporarily ceased."
So Larry went back to the document.
Paragraph one commits both sides to refrain from even the THREAT of force.
By his count Washington now stands in breach of every clause it signed, and Iran, his word, would be crazy to stay in without a tangible American reversal upfront.
Underneath it, the clock.
His math has the reserve's sour-crude cover running out within DAYS, and refilling with sweet crude fixes nothing, because the refineries that make diesel and jet fuel can't run on it.
He flagged a date, too: the last pre-war tankers docked around April 7, the same week Washington suddenly wanted a ceasefire.
Coincidence, he asks. Two tells to close the night.
The crack spread jumped $10 in a single day, and an oil trader he knows texted that the spreads have stopped pretending the paper price is real.
And every ship in the strait today ran the Iranian side. The Omani corridor sat empty.
@NewSonof
