And while Washington waits for Tehran to crack, the Middle East is quietly building a security order designed to rely less on America.
Trump told Axios that Washington is only "semi-negotiating" with Tehran and is essentially waiting for its economy to implode.
Iran's currency has collapsed, inflation is crushing the country, and Trump thinks this pressure will eventually force Tehran to blink.
There’s just one problem: Iran appears increasingly willing to wait him out.
Tehran has already demonstrated that it can absorb enormous military and economic punishment without collapsing.
And if Iranian leaders conclude Trump cannot be trusted to honour an agreement anyway, why make major concessions to an administration that will be gone in a few years?
That creates a potentially dangerous stalemate, and Hormuz sits right in the middle.
Trump may ultimately be prepared to walk away without meaningful concessions on the nuclear issue if he can just get the Strait properly reopened.
Iran, however, is discussing a dramatically different future for Hormuz; one where Tehran decides which vessels can transit, hostile states face restrictions and violations can trigger fees or penalties.
In other words: Trump wants the old Strait back, but Iran appears increasingly determined that version of it no longer exists.
And despite his insistence that the economic pressure is working, the underlying energy problem hasn't disappeared.
America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve is still being drawn down, China is also returning to the oil market after months of reduced buying, and so the clock isn't only ticking on Tehran, it's ticking on Washington too.
And underneath all of this, something potentially much bigger is happening.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan are building a new defence partnership.
Israel is openly alarmed, while Iran, surprisingly, is welcoming it.
Tehran's foreign ministry now describes the pact as evidence that regional countries have realised they can no longer rely on the U.S and other outside powers to guarantee their security.
That may ultimately be the biggest story here.
America spent decades building a Middle Eastern security system with Washington at its centre.
Instead, the region may now be moving in the opposite direction.
@WeTheBrandon
