That’s the part of this interview with geopolitical analyst Robert Pape that people need to understand.
Because on the surface the MOU looks like Trump finding an off-ramp, calming the markets, stopping the war, and buying himself some political breathing room.
But Pape argues the opposite is happening.
He says Iran is now in the driver’s seat, and this deal doesn’t weaken Tehran, it gives them time, money, leverage, and a loaded gun pointed at the global economy.
His argument is brutal: Iran survived the bombing, proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, saw Gulf states feeling abandoned by Washington, and is now using the negotiations not to make peace, but to accumulate power.
According to Pape, the real story is the 60-day window.
Because during those 60 days, global oil reserves that are already depleted keep draining, and Iran’s leverage gets stronger every single week.
Then, if Israel doesn’t leave Lebanon, if the money doesn’t arrive, if Trump doesn’t make concessions, Iran can come back and squeeze again from an even stronger position.
That’s the nightmare scenario.
Pape says Israel understands this, which is why the deal is such a catastrophe for them.
Before the war, Israel was the rising power. After the war, he argues, the tables have flipped, and Iran is now moving toward regional dominance.
That’s why this interview matters.
Because if Pape is right, Trump didn’t end the Iran crisis; he bought 60 days before the next squeeze, which could be far worse.
@ProfessorPape
