And Glenn Diesen thinks Washington may have just solved one of Tehran’s biggest problems for it.
Iran had been debating whether to strike first in the next round of fighting, but doing so risked making Tehran look like the aggressor.
Now it doesn't have to.
After U.S. strikes on Larak Island, Iran can retaliate while arguing that Washington restarted the shooting war.
Diesen says the stranger part is that America's military position hasn't meaningfully improved since the last round.
U.S. interceptor stocks remain under pressure, while Iran appears better able to replenish its missiles and drones and improved the power and accuracy of its strikes as the fighting progressed.
So what exactly has changed?
His answer: perhaps very little.
Washington can't win the war on acceptable terms, can't accept Iran's peace demands, and can't comfortably freeze the conflict while Tehran strengthens relations with its neighbors and maintains control over Hormuz.
That leaves America reaching for escalation without a convincing endgame.
And Diesen argues the latest strike may strengthen Iranian voices calling for a much more dangerous doctrine:
Stop allowing Washington to decide when wars start and stop.
If the U.S. attacks Iran, it may no longer get to decide when the shooting ends.
@Glenn_Diesen
