Former JCPOA negotiator Robert Malley broke it all down for me:
Paragraph five, on Hormuz administration, was the fault line. Iran read it as confirmation of their control over the strait, the U.S. read it as guaranteeing free flow of commerce.
The moment either side tested that ambiguity, the deal was ALWAYS going to unravel.
"You could drive an aircraft carrier through the ambiguities, every paragraph could be read in a thousand different ways."
On Iran striking Gulf civilian infrastructure: they simply want to demonstrate that attacking Iran carries a price, paid in dollars by U.S. allies and the world economy.
On Trump's strategy: "His mindset always seems to be, if I strike them they'll cry uncle, if they don't cry uncle I'll strike them harder, and in this case he is DEAD wrong."
On what comes next: "He is capable of doing a 180 and deciding tomorrow, you know what, we're out of there."
Also discussed: the CNN report that Trump has agreed to allow Saudi to enrich uranium w/out the international safeguards designed to prevent nuclear weapons development.
And what that signals about where this war is actually heading...
Great speaking with @robmalley
