I spoke to Prof. Foad Izadi, of the University of Tehran, to understand how Iran is thinking about what comes next.
He reframes the whole Hormuz standoff in one line: this isn't a negotiation, it's a regime change. Not in Tehran, but in the strait itself.
Iran and Oman are the ones with territorial waters there. The U.S. is 11,000 km away.
On what a second war would look like: Iran has already identified Gulf oil facilities and desalination plants as targets, ones he says could take 2-3 years to rebuild.
He believes hitting Qatari gas facilities is what ultimately pushed Trump toward a ceasefire last time.
On Israel, he believes without American refueling and Gulf airspace, a serious Israeli strike on Iran simply isn't possible.
Great to have @IzadiFoad back on the show. Enjoy.
