Washington is trying to prove it can break Iran's grip on shipping through the Strait, while Tehran is just as determined to prove that it can't.
And that's created an extraordinary cycle, with both sides threatening to make the next round even bigger.
The most worrying change, though, is Iran's calculation.
Earlier in the conflict, Tehran appeared determined to avoid giving Washington an excuse to escalate.
Now, parts of the Iranian leadership may no longer fear being struck at all.
A limited U.S attack gives Iran justification to hit back harder while forcing America to burn through more munitions and expensive air defenses.
It's as if Tehran WANTS Trump to strike them.
And Washington has its own version of the same trap: backing down risks looking like Iran forced America out of one of the world's most strategically important waterways.
So both sides increasingly have reasons to believe the next escalation improves their position, yet neither appears capable of delivering the decisive blow that actually ends this.
That's what makes Hormuz so dangerous now: the question isn't who wants a full-scale war. It's whether either side still believes it can afford to be the first one to stop.
@WeTheBrandon
