After the 12 day war last year, Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute called a full American war with Iran inevitable.
Almost nobody bought it.
His new call: a much larger war is now likelier than a quick de-escalation, and he fears the next major move could come within days.
His core argument is a feedback loop.
Washington bombs on the theory that enough pain will loosen Tehran's grip on the strait.
What Tehran hears, in his read: a hostile America is exactly why the strait can never leave Iranian hands.
Every strike aimed at prying it loose raises its value:
"I don't see the Iranians backing down at all."
He also punctured the reopening narrative.
Under the MOU, ships that coordinated with Iran passed free of charge; the vessels that got shot at had switched off their trackers or refused to coordinate. The actual closure came after.
Now, per a WSJ tape review he cited, the US Navy radios ships offering protection through the southern lane, and one sailor's answer back was short and unprintable.
And if Trump reaches for the table?
He expects Tehran to slow walk it, possibly past the midterms, so nothing ends on Washington's schedule.
His last words on the forecast: "I really hope I'm wrong."
@tparsi
