Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz.
He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him.
For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap."
America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again.
Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations.
Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping.
He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians.
Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds.
Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans.
That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough.
He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him.
Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit.
And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop.
@ProfessorPape
