Why Larak Island?
According to Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar, the answer may be geography.
Larak sits directly beside Iran's shipping route through Hormuz. Aguilar calls it essentially Tehran's “toll booth” for administering traffic through the northern channel.
And the U.S. cannot restore anything resembling normal shipping using the Omani route alone.
That's why Aguilar believes the latest U.S. strikes may be a shaping operation.
Not necessarily for a massive invasion, but potentially to suppress Iranian positions around Larak and Qeshm, move U.S. warships deeper into the Strait, and establish temporary control over the central and southern shipping corridors.
He even raises the possibility of a limited amphibious operation to seize strategically useful terrain long enough to create a safer operating environment for the Navy.
Not occupation. “Island hopping.”
But Iran is already complicating that plan.
During the interview, Iranian strikes reportedly began targeting U.S. vessels in the Gulf, followed by attacks on U.S.-used facilities in Jordan.
Aguilar believes Tehran may now be abandoning proportional retaliation and deliberately creating a “target-rich environment” for American forces moving toward Hormuz.
If he's right, Larak wasn't simply another tit-for-tat strike.
It may have been the opening move in the next battle for the Strait of Hormuz.
