Tel Aviv's latest strike on Syria came shortly after a Turkish delegation visited the airbase it targeted, immediately raising the question of whether Netanyahu and ErdoÄŸan are drifting toward a direct confrontation.
Political analyst Sami Hamdi doesn't think that's quite what's happening.
Israel can't afford a war with Turkey, but what it wants is Turkey contained, because Ankara is rapidly becoming the principal power behind Syria's reconstruction.
Syria barely has a functioning military after years of war, so Turkey is helping train its forces, develop its security apparatus and rebuild its capacity to defend itself.
And ErdoÄŸan has become the major international patron of Ahmed al-Sharaa's government in Damascus.
For Israel, Sami argues, the danger isn't what Syria can do today; it's what a united, rebuilt, Turkish-backed Syria could become 15 or 20 years from now.
That's why southern Syria matters so much.
Sami believes Israel wants to keep a buffer zone there before Damascus becomes strong enough to prevent it.
The problem is that Syria has an obvious response: if its troops can't secure the south without provoking Israel, why not ask Turkey to help?
Turkey is a NATO member, ErdoÄŸan has Trump's ear, and Ankara can provide the military protection Damascus currently cannot provide for itself.
Suddenly Netanyahu faces the possibility of Turkish influence stretching from northern Syria through Damascus and potentially toward Israel's doorstep.
So Israel strikes.
Not, in Sami's assessment, because Netanyahu wants to fight ErdoÄŸan head-on, but because he wants to establish a red line before Turkish involvement becomes impossible to reverse.
And this is where the story gets much bigger than Syria, because Sami believes Israel is confronting something it hasn't had to deal with for decades:
Washington is beginning to see the region differently from Netanyahu.
Israel wanted America fully committed to the war against Iran, but Trump pulled back and moved toward economic pressure instead.
Israel wants maximum freedom of action in Gaza, but Trump increasingly wants his Board of Peace implemented.
Israel sees Ahmed al-Sharaa as a future threat, while Trump sees a potential partner.
And now Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are constructing a new regional security architecture through the Mecca agreement, which Syria may join, and Egypt could eventually follow.
For perhaps the first time, Sami thinks, people inside Washington aren't simply looking at Israel's enemies and asking how America should restrain them.
They're increasingly looking at Israel and asking whether Netanyahu is the one making regional stability impossible.
@salhachimi
