That's the split Prof. Joshua Landis lays out, and he's not sure which one is actually driving the decision.
Landis argues the U.S.-Iran standoff has taken on the shape of a forever war. Not because either side wants that, but because neither can find an exit that doesn't look like defeat.
Trump is betting Iran cracks first under economic pressure. Iran is betting Washington blinks first as gas prices and inflation climb into the midterms. Both sides are convinced time is on their side.
But Landis sees the asymmetry Trump isn't accounting for.
Every time Washington escalates, Iran comes back to the table with harder demands, not softer ones, because that's what winners do. Hit Iran, and instead of folding, they raise the price.
It's a pattern Landis says has repeated itself for months, and one Trump's own advisors reportedly can't fully explain to him.
Then there's the coalition problem.
The new Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi defense pact gets called symbolic, but Landis reads it as something sharper: regional powers hedging against an American ally that keeps making moves nobody asked for.
Turkey doesn't want to be dragged into hitting Iran. Saudi Arabia doesn't want to eat Iranian strikes on its refineries for a war it didn't choose. Everyone's watching Washington burn trust they spent decades building.
And the part that should worry Gulf capitals most: Landis argues China and Russia are quietly rooting for exactly this outcome; a drawn-out American quagmire that drains carriers, munitions, and political capital, at zero cost to Beijing or Moscow.
Landis says this stopped being strategy and is now a country that dug itself a hole and can't find the shovel that got it there.
Does Trump actually walk away before November, or does the hole get deeper first?
@joshua_landis
