The assumption was that if Iran squeezed the Strait of Hormuz, shipping could simply find ways around the problem.
Matthew Hoh thinks Iran may now be targeting the workaround.
If Malcolm Nance's analysis of the Larak launchers is correct, the sea mines weren't necessarily intended for Hormuz itself.
They may have been fired toward the Gulf of Oman and the approaches around Fujairah, where tankers cluster and millions of barrels of oil move every day.
That would mark an important shift.
Iran has repeatedly warned that the conflict wouldn't remain confined to Hormuz.
Hoh believes this could be Tehran beginning to make good on that threat, extending its ability to disrupt shipping beyond the Strait itself.
And he argues the timing exposes a much bigger American problem.
A leaked military readiness assessment reportedly says only around a quarter of U.S. Navy destroyers are deployable. Hoh says the Navy is already struggling with ships, aircraft and munitions after six months of war.
Which makes Washington's claims that it can reliably escort shipping through Hormuz increasingly difficult to square with its own military condition.
Hoh's conclusion is striking:
If U.S.-escorted shipping really is moving safely through the Strait, he suspects there may already be an understanding with Tehran allowing it to happen.
Because otherwise, he doesn't think the Navy can actually do it.
@MatthewPHoh
