Alan, former JCPOA negotiator, connected two vital dots: Ukraine struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian, allegedly carrying military supplies for Russia, just two days before Zelensky flies to Washington to meet Trump, on the occasion of Lindsey Graham's funeral.
"I see this as President Zelensky trying to get into the US's good graces right before a bilateral meeting."
On whether Iran actually escalates against Ukraine in response, Eyre isn't convinced.
He points to Iran's own stated doctrine throughout this war: proportionality, not revenge. Step for step. Strike for strike. Stop when they stop.
Where Eyre does see a real long-term risk is the leadership generation now running Iran. More militaristic, less risk-averse, and shaped by having survived two wars of aggression they didn't think they could survive.
Does a single Ukrainian strike actually risk merging two wars, or is Zelensky just betting Trump won't look closely enough to tell the difference?
@AlanEyre1
