Brandon Weichert laid out the cold logic.
Iran doesn't need to reopen the strait or sign anything.
It just has to keep that waterway half-shut and let the clock run.
Within 60 days, his read goes, the US economy buckles, voters blame Trump, his party loses the midterms, and a Democratic administration walks away from the war Iran wants gone. Survival was the old goal.
Now Tehran sees a path to actually win by waiting.
His take on the ship strikes fit the same frame: this all reignited the moment Washington pushed Oman to open a southern route, because that corridor threatens the one card Iran holds.
And he's blunt that if Oman tries to run its side freely, Iran will simply break international law and hit any vessel that uses it, the same way it hit the Singaporean freighter.
The detail that landed hardest was about Lebanon.
He thinks Israel detonated that massive tunnel complex partly to render southern Lebanon uninhabitable, a deliberate buffer-by-destruction he calls the Gaza model, and that Iran quietly benefits from Israel staying, because occupation keeps the resistance justified.
His long view flips the board entirely: a post-American Middle East where Iran rises and Israel becomes the contained, isolated state.
@WeTheBrandon
