That was Alex Christoforou's read, and he walked me through the front line piece by piece.
Konstantinovka being cleared, Liman being cleared, Russian forces holding the high ground 15km from both Kramatorsk and Sumy.
The last two anchor cities of the Donbas belt, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, are next.
To him, the spectacular footage out of Crimea and Moscow, drones loaded with kerosene for dramatic fireballs, exists to sell a "tide is turning" narrative that keeps Western money flowing.
Hit a storage tank and you get a big explosion.
You don't take out a refinery, which Russia patches in weeks.
On Zelensky's sudden ultimatum to Belarus, Alex sees a man digging out of a hole.
His through-line on the war ties straight back to the Middle East.
The West struck Russia, then struck Iran, things that five years ago everyone called unthinkable. That, he says, is the genuinely dangerous part.
On the MOU, his bar for whether Trump is serious is simple: Lebanon is point one.
Until Israel stops and pulls out, nothing else moves.
@AXChristoforou
