Here's a mystery from late 2025 that finally makes sense.
China was buying oil like crazy. Millions of barrels it had no use for.
Its economy was slowing, electric cars were cutting fuel demand, and analysts kept asking why Beijing wanted so much crude.
Jeffrey Snider says we just got the answer... they were STOCKING UP for this exact war.
Fill your reserves before Hormuz closes, and the crisis everyone else is drowning in barely touches you.
That's why China looks so relaxed right now. No panic, no picking sides, just:
"sitting on the sidelines waiting to see who wins"
If Washington breaks Iran, Beijing claps. If Iran survives, Beijing says we stood with you the whole time. Either way, they win.
Jeffrey also spelled out what Washington actually wants, and it's bigger than a deal.
Three things Washington won't budge on: the nuclear program, the strait, and the collapse of the Iranian government itself.
Not a new deal. Collapse.
One more thing he pushed back on. The famous 41 days of oil reserves?
He says relax, private inventories are nearly full and the real runway is much longer.
So who blinks first? The market has its own dark answer.
Oil futures for next year are priced low, and he thinks that means one thing: a world too broke to buy.
@JeffSnider_EDU @WeTheBrandon
