Jun 28, 2026 2:19 AM
Mark Montgomery doesn't buy the victory lap.
He thinks Iran holds Hormuz today but loses ground steadily, and he laid out why, cheap drone interceptors, bypass pipelines, and a strike campaign quietly eating the systems that make the strait dangerous.
I told him I didn't see it.
The reserves are too low, the clock too short, and one bad night could shut that waterway like before.
He didn't budge.
Then he said the thing that stuck: the single worst move Iran could make is hitting a US Navy ship, and he put a number on exactly how ugly Washington's response would get.
@MarkCMontgomery
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