Larry Johnson, former CIA and State Department counterterrorism officer, joined me as 140+ new targets got hit across Iran, deeper than anything since the ceasefire, including a symbolic second strike on the Khondab heavy-water reactor.
His read: watch the next 12 hours, not the strikes themselves. Every prior escalation cycle has ended the same way, with Trump signaling a "breakthrough" before markets open to avoid the political cost of an oil spike.
"If tomorrow morning, by 8 a.m., Trump hasn't made some sort of conciliatory statement... this escalation will continue back and forth, and the United States is going to suffer far more damage to its military capabilities in the region than Iran will."
He pulled up live vessel-tracking data himself: 2 ships transiting the Strait in 24 hours, both flagged as U.S. pleasure craft. Centcom's line that the waterway remains open and freely navigable doesn't match what the trackers show.
The deeper pattern he sees: Iran is hitting whichever Gulf state let its territory be used to launch strikes that cycle, methodically, and it's already run through Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and the UAE. Saudi is the one holdout so far.
If the constraint really is Tomahawk and interceptor supply rather than political will, does that make the next lull a real de-escalation, or just a reload before the next wave?
@newsonof
