Brandon Weichert published the warning on his Substack.
The island carries roughly 90 PERCENT of Iran's oil exports; seize it, in the thinking he describes, and Washington finally holds the leverage it has lacked all war, the Venezuela playbook moved to the Gulf.
His tells: the wiped schedule, a Marine Expeditionary Unit already in theater, and word from a source he trusts, unconfirmed, he stresses, that Airborne Rangers received prep orders within 48 hours.
Then he spent twice as long on why it fails.
A few thousand Marines and Rangers cannot hold ground Iran has ranged with artillery, laced with traps, and can hit from tunnels nobody has mapped.
The deeper miscalculation, in his telling: the Islamic Republic never drew its legitimacy from oil money, and a cornered Tehran would sooner torch its own island than watch it get co-opted.
His history rhyme was Crassus marching into Persia.
Hanging over it all, the new Supreme Leader's first public vow: those responsible will carry to their graves the unfulfilled hope of a peaceful death in their own beds.
@WeTheBrandon
