Trita Parsi has been studying Iranian politics for over 25 years, and I was surprised to see how optimistic he was about this MOU between Trump and Iran!
He got me excited tbh.
He explained why 'this time is different', and we may actually end up with a better deal than Obama's JCPOA, in terms of not having it ripped up by a future administration for political purposes
1. Trump's recent comments, praising the Iranian regime, advocating for them to have missiles, and being open to doing business with them, essentially shut down the arguments made by pro-war advocates who claim the Iranian regime cannot be reasoned with
2. The Gulf, who play a big role in this new framework, will help ensure the peace negotiations for a long term deal are not sabotaged
3. Iran's military win has now established a new reality, where the only soltuion to the 'Iran problem' is diplomacy. The U.S. tried war, and it failed miserably
4. And most importantly, the sentiment in the U.S. is shifting against 'Israel-First' policies
Blending all these factors made Trita possibly more optimistic than he was even after the JCPOA, and that says a lot!
But he is still very worried that Congress, or a future President, can throw all this progress away for either political gain, or under Israeli pressure, and warns it's way too early to celebrate
But optimism is definitely warranted!
Enjoy my convo with @tparsi
