Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new arrangement for shipping through the Strait, which, at first glance, looks like a de-escalation; Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi says it is anything but.
According to him, this isn't America restoring the old order; it's adapting to a new one.
Iran has made one point non-negotiable: Nothing moves through Hormuz without Tehran knowing about it.
Prof. Marandi says Oman and Iran have spent weeks negotiating a framework that keeps the Strait coordinated rather than divided.
Iran insisted it would never accept a system where Oman managed one side while Tehran had no oversight of the other.
Instead, he says, every vessel would remain subject to Iranian coordination.
And even if an agreement is signed, that doesn't mean Hormuz suddenly returns to normal.
Prof. Marandi argues that Trump first has to return to the broader Memorandum of Understanding that Washington abandoned.
That means more than just shipping; it means sanctions relief, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and potentially new understandings covering Yemen and Gaza as well.
Only then, he says, can the Strait be fully normalised.
And the kicker this time is that Prof. Marandi doesn't believe Iran will simply reopen Hormuz and trust Washington to keep its promises later.
He says Tehran will want key concessions delivered first.
@s_m_marandi
