That's like killing our president, first lady, the first family, most of the cabinet, and 1/3 of Congress."
Robert Pape has advised every White House since 2001, and taught targeting strategy to the U.S. Air Force.
His read on night 10: this isn't a tit-for-tat, it's a spiral.
The munitions argument, he says, is right on facts but wrong in its conclusion. Patriots and THAADs are indeed depleting fast...
But that constrains the air campaign, it does not stop it.
If the smart bombs run out, 3 aircraft can still saturate a kill box with 240 dumb ones, and a dumb bomb becomes a poor man's JDAM for 20 grand.
He sees the past few days of U.S. targeting as prep for a ground seizure on Iran's southern coast. More likely than not, in the coming weeks. If not sooner.
Just 30% of Americans back this war, and almost all are proud members of Trump's base, bound to him as "a winner." Fold, and he's a lame duck before the midterms.
And Tehran isn't going to gift wrap him an exit strategy…
A must listen conversation, as always, with @ProfessorPape
