Iran's economy is unquestionably worse than before the war, he says. Infrastructure is damaged, sanctions hurt, and Tehran is shifting toward a wartime economy.
But Iran isn't thinking about surrender. It's preparing for another war.
Marandi argues Tehran has spent decades preparing for exactly this confrontation, building underground facilities while developing missiles and drones. And he believes Iran is now rapidly expanding those capabilities during the current lull.
That creates a nasty paradox for Trump's “Economic D-Day.”
If the sanctions fail, Iran can simply absorb the pressure and wait.
If they succeed in seriously damaging Iran's economy, Marandi believes Tehran will retaliate, potentially targeting American economic and military interests across the Gulf.
And Iran still has another lever: Hormuz.
Marandi argues Tehran could gradually tighten the flow of oil and other critical commodities, increasing pressure on global markets without immediately returning to full-scale war.
So Washington's problem is becoming increasingly uncomfortable.
Sanctions that don't work accomplish very little. Sanctions that do work may restart the war.
And Marandi's conclusion is remarkably simple: if Washington is serious about using economic pressure to overthrow the Iranian government, renewed conflict is “inevitable.”
@s_m_marandi
