Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out.
Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing.
His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power.
That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter.
They're all part of the same strategic picture.
Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence.
Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it.
That's the part almost everyone is missing.
America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board.
Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing.
By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding.
One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them.
@ProfessorPape
