His view is that what looks like a shift by Trump is less a new strategy and more a forced attempt to contain escalation that is already out of control.
Horton argues Trump never truly wanted a direct war with Iran, but was drawn into it through allied pressure and momentum dynamics.
In that sense, the current posture is not a clean pivot but an effort to stop further expansion of the conflict.
He places significant weight on the role of Benjamin Netanyahu in sustaining long-running pressure that makes US disengagement difficult once escalation begins.
Once the cycle starts, Horton says, it becomes hard for Washington to step back without political and strategic fallout.
He doubts the U.S. could fully avoid being pulled into a wider regional conflict if things continue to escalate.
The overall picture he draws is not victory or reversal, but a system running into its own limits.
@scotthortonshow
