According to Maariv's Amir Ben-David, senior IDF officers believe Netanyahu wants an escalation in Gaza specifically to push back the October vote. His own generals reportedly don't want it.
Same pattern just played out in Syria. Tom Barak said everything was calm, negotiations were scheduled for next week, Syria had denied any Turkish military buildup. And then Netanyahu struck the runways anyway. Election polling explains a lot here. He's sitting around 20% right now.
Meanwhile in Iran, the picture is more split than people expected.
For weeks the assumption was: blockade continues, Iran retaliates hard. But Iran's president and parliament speaker have both been posting messages that sound almost conciliatory. "People are suffering," "I'm a fighter and I know the importance of avoiding war." That's a real internal debate: take the deal now, or hold out and make Trump pay politically before the midterms.
They haven't stopped fighting though. Satellite tracking shows only three tankers crossed the Strait yesterday. Nowhere near the "10 million barrels a day" figure the administration keeps pushing through Axios.
The line worth sitting with, borrowed from Kissinger: to be America's enemy is dangerous. To be America's friend can be fatal.
Right now, across the Gulf, that's exactly how it's landing.
@WeTheBrandon
