๐ฎ๐ฑ๐น๐ท Netanyahu has effectively admitted Israel bombed Syria as a warning to Turkey, and geopolitical analyst Malcolm Nance is concerned the next message could be much harder to control.
The airbase Israel targeted was reportedly of interest to Ankara as a potential base of operations, and Netanyahu said Turkey's movement south was challenging the existing status quo, so Israel demonstrated its position through what he described as โkineticโ means.
Malcolm says this is about something much bigger than one Syrian airfield.
Israel wants freedom to operate across Syrian airspace without a serious military challenge.
Turkey, meanwhile, is steadily expanding its influence over Damascus and wants a stable Syria increasingly integrated into its own security architecture.
Those two visions of Syria are becoming incompatible.
And Malcolm believes Israel is trying to establish its red lines now, before Turkish influence becomes too deeply entrenched to reverse.
What worries him is the mentality behind it.
Israel has become accustomed to using overwhelming airpower to impose red lines on much weaker regional opponents, but Turkey is an entirely different proposition.
It has one of NATO's largest standing armies, a huge domestic defence industry, advanced drones and weapon systems, and the strategic depth to absorb attacks in a way Israel's traditional adversaries cannot.
Malcolm also points to increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Israeli officials discussing confrontation with Turkish forces in Syria and even scenarios they believe could avoid triggering NATO's Article 5.
Nobody seriously wants an Israel-Turkey war, but that's precisely what makes this dangerous.
Israel believes it can bomb Turkey's ambitions in Syria without fighting Turkey itself.
Malcolm's warning is that eventually Erdoฤan may stop accepting that distinction.
@MalcolmNance
