Brandon Weichert's first reaction said it all: this is the worst ceasefire in the history of ceasefires.
The strikes landed on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar, retaliation for Iran's drone attack on a Singaporean cargo ship in Hormuz a day earlier.
To Brandon, calling it a ceasefire is a stretch, it's a pause to rearm, reload, and reacquire targets, what the diplomat Chas Freeman labeled a "ceasefire with Israeli characteristics."
His harder claim is that the strike changed nothing structural.
A Financial Times piece had US intelligence quietly conceding the bombing never reached Iran's real defense-industrial capacity, because it sits underground beneath granite.
So whatever got hit tonight, Brandon argues, is what Iran was willing to lose.
He compared it to North Vietnam: you blow up what you can see, by design.
Where the whole conversation kept landing is the strait.
For Tehran, Brandon says, Hormuz is no longer about survival, that's already secured, it's about cementing control, and it now outranks even the nuclear file.
Their parliament has already passed the legal machinery for tolls. They don't have to fire a missile to retaliate.
One phone call to Lloyd's of London threatening closure freezes the world economy all over again.
@WeTheBrandon
