Matthew Hoh, former U.S. Marine and State Dept. official who resigned over the Afghanistan war, breaks it down with his characteristic bluntness:
The Hormuz arrangement gives Iran control of all ingress into the Persian Gulf, with dual Iran-Oman control of the egress, meaning each ship entering the Gulf does so with Iranian permission.
Every U.S. base inside becomes nearly impossible to resupply by sea, and the American military presence in the region becomes structurally unsustainable.
"If you needed another example of Iran's victory here, THIS would be it."
On Trump: "We're dealing with a MAD EMPEROR who likes being the one who turns the war on and turns the war off... there's no reason for it to be any more complicated than that."
On the intelligence picture Trump is actually receiving: the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee told Hoh in 2010 he had never once received a negative briefing on Afghanistan, a pattern that has never changed, and the same bubble operates today.
On what a deal looks like politically: Trump posts on Truth Social that he hit Iran so hard they begged for peace and now America is leaving.
And that spin, absurd as it sounds, might actually work.
Excellent conversation, thanks @MatthewPHoh
