Professor Pape's argument: the Axis of Resistance belt from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf, that's Iran encircling every energy exit point from the Persian Gulf including the ones built to bypass Hormuz
Lebanon is the Mediterranean coast, and Hezbollah is who holds it
The nuclear question he reframed completely. Iran doesn't need a weapon yet, they need to stay just below the threshold until Israel does something egregious enough to justify crossing it, and Israel keeps giving them excuses
He called this the inverse of the 1991 Gulf War, one short conflict flipped the entire regional order
End of the escalation trap in his model: when US forces physically leave the region, that's the moment Iran's rise gets formally accepted
Vance might be the one to march them out, and that could be his 2028 ticket
The war lasted 112 days and changed everything
Enjoy this interview with @ProfessorPape
