The Associated Press reports that Europe cannot absorb a sustained Russian missile attack, and would struggle to respond even to a single stray missile.
The Wall Street Journal has now corroborated it. Patriots are low. ATACMS are low. THAAD interceptors and counter-drone systems in EUCOM are running low too. Older Tomahawks are being refurbished to cover shortfalls, and air defence units have been pulled from Europe and the Indo-Pacific into CENTCOM because of the Iran war.
EUCOM has reportedly adjusted its operational plans for a Russian missile attack, though officials say none is imminent.
And that is exactly what makes this moment dangerous. The argument that Putin had many chances to hit NATO and never did misses the point: the US, Europe and Ukraine have never been this exposed.
Meanwhile Berlin is preparing to formally blame Russia for the Leipzig airport drone attempt and roll out sanctions on roughly 1,600 individuals and companies. Poland's prime minister says Russia is seriously preparing for escalation and the next seven to eight months are critical. The Kremlin says there are no grounds for improving relations with the EU at all.
On the Ratcliffe visit to Moscow, European officials reportedly don't believe it was about an imminent NATO attack. They think it concerned restarting peace talks. Which fits the drop in oil prices afterwards.
But there is a darker reading circulating: that Putin summoned an American official to signal a major offensive out of Belarus, coordinated with Lukashenko.
Several analysts now expect a second front from Belarus. Whether that means a push on Kyiv or a drive toward Odessa is disputed. And the final line will be settled by diplomats, not soldiers.
The skepticism worth keeping is this: predictions of imminent collapse have been made about both sides for years and haven't landed.
But collapse, when it comes, tends to come fast. Assad is the recent example.
@WeTheBrandon
