That is the dilemma former U.S. diplomat Aaron David Miller sees developing around Iran.
Miller argues that if Trump’s sanctions begin seriously damaging Iran’s economy, Tehran may decide that if it is going to suffer anyway, it might as well make the United States pay a price too.
That could mean attacks on Gulf states, energy infrastructure and American interests across the region. And the bigger problem is that neither side appears willing to accept the other's terms.
Trump wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Iran wants a new regional order that prevents another American military campaign against it.
Miller's blunt assessment: “I don't see the exit ramp.” There may still be one.
Miller suggests allowing the Gulf states to negotiate their own arrangements with Tehran, including a compromise over Hormuz, rather than forcing Washington itself to make the concessions.
But that would require Trump to accept something he has so far resisted: that America cannot permanently police the entire region.
And there is a much bigger question hanging over all of this.
If Russia cannot subdue Ukraine, and the U.S. cannot subdue Iran, what does China conclude about the limits of American power?
Miller wonders whether watching these conflicts could make Xi more cautious over Taiwan, or convince him that greater powers can attack smaller ones and still fail to achieve their objectives.
The Middle East may therefore be approaching a choice between a negotiated regional order and another round of escalation.
And right now, nobody seems particularly sure where the exit ramp is.
@aarondmiller2
