Brent has climbed 25% in three weeks to $94, four dollars off its wartime peak, and emerging-markets investor Raymond Zucaro thinks even that undersells the danger.
Three pressures are stacking on the same barrel: Hormuz is throttled to a handful of ships, the Houthis have thrown a blockade across the Red Sea and turned back Saudi tankers, and Washington is openly floating a ground move on Kharg Island.
The wild part? Prices should be higher still.
Raymond argues oil sits well below its true level, held down by China's purchasing halt, drained reserves worldwide, and futures suppression that pushed the main oil ETF's short position past 100% of its shares.
Which means the floor is artificial, holding only until refiners bidding for real barrels drag the gap into daylight.
Turns out that gap is already surfacing at the pump, with gas past four dollars and climbing while the reserve buffer that absorbed the early shock runs dry.
His read on where we are: second inning of a nine-inning game.
@RayZucaro
