Prof. Steve Hanke teaches economics at Johns Hopkins and has advised presidents and prime ministers around the world. I wanted to hear his thoughts.
When the Strait of Hormuz shut down, oil didn't disappear, it got pulled forward from future supply to cover the present shortage.
Now inventories and strategic reserves need to be refilled.
He expects that rebuilding process to keep real demand strong through the rest of the year, which means today's lower prices won't last.
Iran and the U.S. are also locked in a standoff over who actually controls the strait, and the agreements meant to settle it are already falling apart.
He puts the odds this resolves smoothly at 20% or less. Israel, he says, is the likely "spoiler" in the whole thing.
It was great having @SteveHanke on again.
