He had just told me we weren't out of the woods when the CENTCOM alert HIT.
The strikes, on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar, came as retaliation for Iran's drone attack on a Singaporean cargo ship in Hormuz the day before.
Currie's only reaction to the timing: Friday, after market close, right on schedule.
His core argument is that markets are pricing a calm that doesn't exist.
Oil sits below pre-war levels, gold slipped under $4k, volatility collapsed, everyone partying like the risk is gone.
Yet by his read the system is physically tighter than the day the war began.
The price crash, he says, is one giant burst of trapped oil popping out of the strait at once, against a backdrop where production is still down 5.5 million barrels a day and every buffer needs rebuilding.
The genuine mystery he keeps circling is China.
Imports fell roughly 6 million barrels a day and simply haven't recovered, even with oil in the $60's.
He can account for all but about 2 million of it.
No clean answer, and the honest possibilities he floats range from concealed reserve draws to China simply lying about the data.
His tell that nobody wants to sail in: the freight rate to move a tanker through the Gulf has gone from around 50 to 900.
That number isn't demand, he says. It's the price of nobody being willing to go in.
@CommodMkt
