Sat down with maritime historian Sal Mercogliano to find out what's actually moving through the Strait of Hormuz right now, and the official numbers don't hold up
Washington says 10 million barrels a day are flowing out. Half of that's pipeline, not ships. Real seaborne flow is closer to 5 million, and it's coming out in pulses, not a steady stream.
Ships are now splitting into two separate lanes, Iranian side and Omani side, running in convoys of 5 to 8 vessels under what looks like active U.S. escort. CENTCOM hasn't confirmed a word of it.
China's sitting on 5 million barrels a day of demand it isn't using. Won't touch the cheap Iranian oil stacking up off Malaysia either. Sal's read:
Beijing doesn't want to look dependent on one supplier, and they remember exactly what happened the last time a foreign power cut their lifelines off in the 1930s. They're playing a long game while everyone else scrambles.
And here's the part nobody's saying out loud: no one will confirm the actual price being paid per barrel coming out of Hormuz right now. Not Brent. Not WTI. Some other number that isn't public.
So is the strait reopening, or are we watching two permanent systems get built quietly, Iran running the north, the U.S. running the south, and everyone's just calling it normal?
@mercoglianos
