Jeffrey Snider thinks he knows why.
I sat down with the macro analyst and eurodollar expert to make sense of what's happening with oil, the global economy, and what comes next.
His theory on the price collapse: demand destruction from the energy shock may be deeper than anyone expected. Manufacturers front-loaded months of activity when the war started, building inventory fast before shortages hit.
Now that rush is over, and they've hit an air pocket.
On China: "Terrible." Banking crisis, real estate bust, consumer spending collapsing. Chinese government bond yields almost back to record lows. He thinks China quietly agreed with Trump after their May summit to hold off on refilling strategic reserves, helping suppress the oil price.
Nobody knows what China got in return.
His bigger warning has nothing to do with oil. The stock market says the economy is booming. The median age of a first-time homebuyer in America is now 40.
He says that gap is exactly what's driving the global wave of socialism, and the political breaking point is getting closer faster than people think.
We've been in the downswing of a long economic cycle since August 2007. He thinks the 2030s could mark the turn. The question is whether the politics break first.
Great conversation with @JeffSnider_EDU
