Six months into a strangled strait, crude still sits near $80, which half the desk reads as proof the pain has been oversold.
George Gammon reads that same number and sees something darker, because prices come from two sides, and while supply fell hard when the strait shut, demand fell harder still.
Cheap oil right now isn’t strength, it’s the sound of a world buying less because it can’t afford more.
He’s just as blunt about the sanctions everyone keeps waiting on, since those dollars don’t actually live in New York.
The eurodollar system settles offshore, beyond Treasury’s reach, leaving Washington with one real tool: scaring banks into saying no.
Cutting Russia off from SWIFT sounded devastating until you realize SWIFT is essentially text messaging between banks, so they picked up the phone instead and paid a little more for the trouble.
Which brings the killer question, because making any of this bite would mean threatening India’s access to dollars, and nobody is doing that:
“If sanctions worked, they would have worked before this whole thing blew up”
His real warning isn’t about Treasury bonds at all, but corporate debt, where the AI giants are already burning cash and borrowing to keep building.
Let rates climb high enough and the building stops, taking the thing quietly holding up the American economy down with it
@GeorgeGammon
